If the Buffalo Bills are going to win Sunday, they’re going to have to find a way to stop this guy. (Photo: Jeff Hanisch — USA Today Sports)
BBD Editor: Dan Hope
It’s not a good week for the Buffalo Bills to desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
While the Bills can be glad to return home, still owning a winning record and still sitting just one game back of a wild card spot, their final game in Orchard Park this year comes against the Green Bay Packers, who own the NFL’s longest active winning streak at five games.
No team in the league has been playing better than Green Bay. The Packers have won nine of their last 10 games, a span in which they have outscored their opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been both the catalyst and backbone of the Packers’ success. Having thrown 35 touchdowns this year versus just three interceptions, while he leads the league with 8.78 passing yards per attempt, Rodgers has emerged as the clear-cut choice—barring a shocking collapse—to be the NFL MVP for this season.
Rodgers and the Packers offense, which leads the league with 32.5 points per game, has looked nearly unstoppable, especially in recent weeks (they’ve averaged 40.2 points per game over the course of their active winning streak). If anyone is equipped to slow down Green Bay, however, it might be the Bills, especially with the advantage of playing at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
If I told you that the Bills lost to the Denver Broncos last week, and that their league-leading pass-rush did not record a single sack, you’d probably assume that Peyton Manning posted big numbers if you hadn’t followed the game, correct?
The Bills made life difficult for Peyton Manning in Week 14. (Photo: Ron Chenoy — USA Today Sports)
But that isn’t what happened. Despite the Bills defense held without a sack for the first time this season, Manning went just 14-of-20 passing for 173 yards, was intercepted twice and was held without a passing touchdown, the first time Manning failed to complete a scoring pass in a game since Nov. 14, 2010, when he played the Cincinnati Bengals while still quarterbacking the Indianapolis Colts.
That game—in which Manning also had his worst single-game quarterback rating since Nov. 30, 2008—proved that the Bills defense is good enough to stop the second-best passer in the NFL this year. Buffalo also held the entire Denver offense to its lowest yardage output of the year to date, and forced it into three turnovers for the first time this season.
The Bills will need their defensive unit to play just as well Sunday to slow down Rodgers and the red-hot Green Bay offense.
Very concerning for the Bills is that despite their defensive dominance, they were still unable to win last week, as a result of the poor play of quarterback Kyle Orton and their stagnant offense.
After fooling the world with above-average quarterback play for a few weeks, Orton has reverted to his usual below-average mediocrity since the bye week. While the Packers offense has been rolling in its past five games, the Bills have averaged just 20.6 points per game in that same span.
That said, Sunday’s game could provide an opening on that front too. For as good as the Packers offense has been, their defense has had some issues, especially in its most recent game against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night, when it allowed 37 points and 465 total yards.
Green Bay clearly comes into Sunday’s matchup, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, as the better team—that much should not be questioned. But the Bills defense is great enough, and the Packers defense has had enough lapses, that a needed win for Buffalo is not unforeseeable, especially considering that the Packers are just 3-3 on the road this year and will be playing on short rest after Monday Night Football.
Three things that must happen for a Bills win:
1. Defense must continue to be great – The Bills defense has been as good as any in the NFL this season. With the exception of its Week 6 game against the New England Patriots, in which Tom Brady and co. posted 396 yards and scored 37 points, the Bills have held all of their opponents to 24 points or less and have forced at least one turnover in all but one other game. It has forced 18 turnovers in its last seven games alone, and has not allowed any opponent to go above 330 offensive yards in that span.
This game, however, will be its toughest test of the year. Buffalo is unlikely to get away with having a limited pass-rush in this contest, and its secondary must continue to be on its A-game against a talented crop of Packers receivers led by Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. Either way, the Bills must hold their own in the strength-vs-strength portion of this game; if not, Buffalo will not win.
Kyle Orton needs to play better for the Bills to have a chance on Sunday. (Photo: Ron Chenoy — USA Today Sports)
2. Offense must take advantage of opportunities - Last week’s final score of 24-17 makes the offense’s performance look more respectable than it actually was. The Bills went into the fourth quarter trailing 24-3, having not scored a touchdown all game. Orton made some huge mistakes of his own, with two interceptions including one in the red zone, but worst of all, Buffalo failed to score any points off of three defensive takeaways.
The Bills will be hard-pressed to force turnovers in the game—Green Bay has the league’s least giveaways this year, with eight—but they must take advantage of good field position and match Packers points with points of their own. Considering the Packers have scored at least 23 points in each of their last 10 games, it’s difficult to see the Bills having any chance of winning this one unless they can reach the end zone at least three times.
3. Avoid costly mistakes - The Bills have sometimes been able to get away with turnovers of their own, because of how great their defense has played, but the offense simply cannot afford to put the defense in those kind of positions against Rodgers’ unit.
The Packers, who are tied for fifth in the NFL with 24 takeaways, lead the league with 102 points off turnovers this season, according to SportingCharts.com. Settling for field goals or punts (if Colton Schmidt does better than he did last week) won’t cripple Buffalo’s efforts to win this game, but turnovers that give Green Bay prime field position will.
Matchups to Watch:
Buffalo WR Sammy Watkins vs. Green Bay secondary - The absolute biggest reason the Packers’ 24-point lead whittled down to just a six-point advantage by the end of Monday night’s contest against Atlanta was the play of Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones had 259 receiving yards, the most of any NFL player in a single game this year, on Monday.
This week, the Bills will be counting on a similar impact from Watkins. That’s a tall order to ask of their rookie, who has the potential to be as good as Julio Jones but certainly is not nearly at Jones’ elite level yet. What last week did show, at the least, was that Green Bay’s cornerbacks are plenty beatable when you have a legitimate No. 1 receiver. That’s what Buffalo expects Watkins to be, and this will be a good opportunity, coming off a seven-catch, 127-yard performance against the Broncos last week, to show it.
Covering Jordy Nelson has been a problem for opposing defenses this year. (Photo: Chris Humphreys — USA Today Sports)
Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson vs. Buffalo CBs Stephon Gilmore/Corey Graham - With 78 receptions for 1,265 yards and a league-high 12 touchdowns, Nelson has been one of the NFL’s elite wide receivers this year. He’s a true deep threat who can beat defensive backs up the sideline and on post routes to make big plays, while he is a regularly sure-handed intermediate target as well.
Covering him is going to be a big challenge for whichever Bills cornerback, whether that be Gilmore or Graham, is lined up against him Sunday.
Green Bay C Corey Linsley vs. Bills DT Marcell Dareus - Few players have controlled the middle of the line of scrimmage better this year than Linsley on the offensive side of the ball and Dareus on the defensive side.
While all four Bills defensive linemen have legitimate cases to be Pro Bowlers this year, the main engine of the unit in 2014 has been Dareus, who provides push with regularity as an interior pass-rusher and has been dominant as a run-stopper in the middle. Linsley has had an excellent rookie season, proving to be a great cog in the middle of the Packers offensive line, but taking on Dareus will be among his toughest tests yet.
